Iran Chamber of Commerce has released the country’s new PMI data for the fiscal month of Dey (December 22, 2022 – January 20, 2023) which is below the threshold for a third consecutive month.
According to the new PMI reading, Iran’s monthly PMI fell 7.25 points from that of last month to settle at 41.89.
This month’s PMI was the lowest ever reported since the survey began forty months ago excluding each year’s calendar month of Farvardin which coincides with two-week holidays of the Persian New Year and the calendar month of Esfand in Fiscal 1398 when the coronavirus disease broke out in the country.
The figure suggests that soaring inflation, high hard currency rates and weak demand continue to bother the Iranian economy. Shortage of energy has also emerged to become another factor to damage the country’s economy this winter.
All the major sub-indexes have been registered below the threshold (below 50) in this month.
The Statistics and Economic Analysis Center of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, the sponsor and coordinator of the survey, announces the whole economy PMI data in a report every month.
The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100, such that over 50 shows an expansion of the economy when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 indicates contraction and a reading of 50 implies no change.
PMI is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends, aiming to provide information about business conditions to company directors, analysts and purchasing managers.
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The “business activities” sub-index (39.48) has registered one of its lowest over the 40-month survey. Activities have been shrinking in all the three main parts of the economy (industry, agriculture, and services). The fall in business activities was majorly as a result of power outages and a significant rise in the raw material prices which followed soaring forex rates.
The “new orders” sub-index (40.82) has posted an 18-month low excluding that of the past calendar month of Farvardin marking the Persian New Year holidays. The agricultural and services sectors have been most severely hit, with the politico-economic situations of the country affecting the new orders.
The “suppliers’ delivery time” (43.35) also witnessed a sharp decline which was mainly due to company shutdowns as a result of energy outages, rising inflation, and increasing costs of supplying the required input.
The “raw material inventory” sub-index (39.54) was another sub-index to post a significant decline when compared to 46.41 of the preceding month. Experts believe that the sales of raw materials have declined due to a rise in the forex rate causing problems for the companies in meeting their needs for raw materials.
The “employment” sub-index (46.62) dropped to a ten-month low, excluding the calendar month of Farvardin. The most significant decline was seen in agricultural and services sectors.
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INDEX
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Aban1401
(Oct-Nov2022)
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Azar1401
(Nov-Dec2022)
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Dey1401
(Dec2022-Jan2023)
|
|
PMI
|
47.39
|
49.14
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41.89
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|
business activities
|
46.24
|
50.51
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39.48
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|
new orders
|
43.91
|
48.47
|
40.82
|
|
suppliers’ delivery time
|
51.73
|
49.75
|
43.35
|
|
raw material inventory
|
51.26
|
46.41
|
39.54
|
|
employment
|
48.88
|
49.32
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46.62
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|
raw materials price
|
78.49
|
85.25
|
85.26
|
|
finished goods inventory
|
48.86
|
50.49
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46.58
|
|
exports of goods and services
|
45.69
|
50.84
|
45.74
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|
price of goods and services
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55.47
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58.58
|
59.61
|
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consumption of energy carriers
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49.80
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67.25
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59.09
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|
sales of goods and services
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48.21
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48.15
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43.31
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|
expectations for next month economic activities
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52.62
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55.01
|
52.70
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