Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) has released the country’s new PMI data for the fiscal month of Mehr (September 22 – October 21, 2024), which has improved compared to the contractions reported over the past five months.
The seasonally adjusted PMI recovered from 47.1 of the preceding month to 50.2, slightly above the threshold (above 50), indicating a minor growth in the economy. The figure stood at 52.3 before the application of seasonal adjustment.
Seasonal adjustment, or deseasonalization, is a statistical method used to remove the seasonal component from a time series. It is typically applied when we aim to analyze the trend and cyclical deviations of a time series independently from its seasonal components.
After the preparation of dozens of PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) reports by the Research Center of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture, the Center has now identified the seasonal components of these time series and has prioritized the seasonal adjustment in its monthly PMI reports.
The PMI improvement was more significant in the industry sector as it grew by 8.2 points to settle at 57.4.
The surge in the monthly PMI was partly caused by easing restrictions on electricity supplies with the end of the peak demand season.
The Statistics and Economic Analysis Center of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, the sponsor and coordinator of the survey, announces the whole economy PMI data in a report every month.
The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100, such that over 50 shows an expansion of the economy when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 indicates contraction and a reading of 50 implies no change.
PMI is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends, aiming to provide information about business conditions to company directors, analysts and purchasing managers.
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The “business activities” sub-index was reported at 51.1, to register the first reading above the 50 mark in seven months, indicating a slight growth in this area.
The “raw material inventory” sub-index (47.1) posted another decline for the eighth month in a row.
The “sales of goods and services” which had registered one of its lowest last month, increased after five months of decline to settle at 55.3.
The “expectations for next month economic activities” sub-index was reported at 55.9, which was its lowest in 20 months, reflecting increasing economic uncertainty and fading positive expectations about the future of the country’s economy.
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INDEX
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Mordad1403 (July-Aug2024)
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Shahrivar1403 (Aug-Sep2024)
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Mehr1403 (Sep-Oct2024)
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PMI (seasonally adjusted)
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47.4
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47.7
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50.2
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business activities
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43.4
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46.0
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51.1
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new orders
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46.9
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43.1
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47.5
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suppliers’ delivery time
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52.2
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52.2
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48.5
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raw material inventory
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50.8
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46.5
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47.1
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employment
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47.7
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51.1
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54.1
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raw materials price
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70.5
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73.2
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75.9
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finished goods inventory
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50.6
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49.5
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48.8
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exports of goods and services
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46.8
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48.6
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51.0
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price of goods and services
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58.1
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59.1
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61.1
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consumption of energy carriers
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52.3
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53.3
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54.5
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sales of goods and services
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46.9
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45.3
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55.3
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expectations for next month economic activities
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60.3
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61.8
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55.9
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