Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) has released the country’s new PMI data for the fiscal month of Farvardin (March 21 – April 20, 2025) posting a fifth drop in a row.
The seasonally adjusted PMI was reported at 48.4 which remains below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. It even fell more sharply compared to 48.7 of the preceding month.
Power outages, decreased purchasing power, and shortage in liquidity were among the key factors contributing to the shrinking PMI.
Seasonal adjustment, or deseasonalization, is a statistical method used to remove the seasonal component from a time series, allowing for the independent analysis of trends and cyclical deviations. After preparing dozens of PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) reports, the Research Center of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture has now identified the seasonal components of these time series and prioritized seasonal adjustment in its monthly PMI reports.
The Statistics and Economic Analysis Center of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, the sponsor and coordinator of the survey, announces the whole economy PMI data in a report every month.
The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100, such that over 50 shows an expansion of the economy when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 indicates contraction and a reading of 50 implies no change.
PMI is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends, aiming to provide information about business conditions to company directors, analysts and purchasing managers.
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While the New Year holidays disrupted many businesses this month, the decline in PMI extended beyond the two-week break and was also driven by deeper infrastructural and economic challenges.
One of the most significant of these challenges is the energy imbalance and power outages, which have had an additional negative impact on production and increased operational costs for manufacturing units. In addition, severe exchange rate fluctuations during this period have made it difficult for many businesses to procure raw materials, forcing them to operate at reduced capacity due to heightened uncertainty and market risks.
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INDEX
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Bahman1403 (Jan-Feb2025)
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Esfand1403 (Feb-Mar2025)
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Farvardin1403 (Mar-Apr2025)
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PMI (seasonally adjusted)
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46.4
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48.7
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48.4
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business activities
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46.2
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48.6
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50.3
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new orders
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42.1
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48.6
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47.5
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suppliers’ delivery time
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48.6
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52.0
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49.1
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raw material inventory
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47.6
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46.7
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50.2
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employment
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51.0
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47.6
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45.7
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raw materials price
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84.4
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74.8
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70.1
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finished goods inventory
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45.0
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46.1
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49.0
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exports of goods and services
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47.6
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45.4
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44.8
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price of goods and services
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68.7
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62.6
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59.9
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consumption of energy carriers
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52.8
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52.0
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54.2
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sales of goods and services
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46.2
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54.2
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50.1
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expectations for next month economic activities
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49.2
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51.3
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52.3
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