Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) has released the country’s new PMI data for the fiscal month of Dey (December 21, 2024 – January 19, 2025), which has continued to fall after it witnessed a sharp decline in the previous month.
The seasonally adjusted PMI was reported at 47.0, below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The figure stood at 44.9 before the application of seasonal adjustment.
Seasonal adjustment, or deseasonalization, is a statistical method used to remove the seasonal component from a time series, allowing for the independent analysis of trends and cyclical deviations. After preparing dozens of PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) reports, the Research Center of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture has now identified the seasonal components of these time series and prioritized seasonal adjustment in its monthly PMI reports.
Although the PMI has declined less sharply compared to the preceding month, it still indicates the inappropriate condition of Iranian businesses.
The Statistics and Economic Analysis Center of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, the sponsor and coordinator of the survey, announces the whole economy PMI data in a report every month.
The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100, such that over 50 shows an expansion of the economy when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 indicates contraction and a reading of 50 implies no change.
PMI is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends, aiming to provide information about business conditions to company directors, analysts and purchasing managers.
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The “business activities” sub-index (47.4) has been reported below the threshold (below 50) for a second month in a row. The business activities faced a decline this month driven by instable prices, sharp increase in the foreign exchange rate and power cuts.
The “raw material inventory” sub-index has declined for the eleventh consecutive month to settle at 46.9. The fall in this index is mainly attributed to increasing foreign exchange rates which has left the businesses in difficult conditions at a time that they face financial problems and shortage in liquidity.
With increasing foreign exchange rates and imported raw material prices, the “raw materials price” sub-index was reported at 82.0, reflecting problems facing Iranian producers.
The new PMI reading also puts the “price of goods and services” sub-index at 58.2, which indicates a rise in prices although they have grown much less sharply in comparison to raw material prices due to weak demand. More price hikes, however, are expected in the coming months.
The “employment” sub-index was also reported at 43.2, one its lowest since the survey began 58 months ago.
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INDEX
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Aban1403 (Oct-Nov2024)
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Azar1403 (Nov-Dec2024)
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Dey1403 (Dec2024-Jan2025)
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PMI (seasonally adjusted)
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51.4
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45.5
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47.0
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business activities
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51.5
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46.2
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47.4
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new orders
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52.0
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41.8
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46.7
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suppliers’ delivery time
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55.5
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48.8
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51.8
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raw material inventory
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50.0
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45.5
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46.9
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employment
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48.2
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47.8
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43.2
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raw materials price
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82.2
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83.9
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82.0
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finished goods inventory
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48.1
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43.0
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46.8
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exports of goods and services
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47.9
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46.4
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47.0
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price of goods and services
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61.4
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61.5
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58.2
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consumption of energy carriers
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53.4
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43.4
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51.4
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sales of goods and services
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51.1
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47.6
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49.2
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expectations for next month economic activities
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58.6
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47.7
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53.7
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